It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Dont simply gloss over this. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Hillary Clinton (578) . But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via We believe this was a mistake. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Trump won 18 of the 19. What, if anything, did we miss? If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. 5. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Thank you for supporting our journalism. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Do you know this baby? It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Yes, another Hillsborough! Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. 2. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. These key counties are telling the story of America's shifting Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". But it's still indicative of widespread support. Watch Hampton City. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Not a bad streak. Seriously. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. They're just facts about the vote. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Their emotions and decision making process are real. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. 3. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Found an error on our site? [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. TIP: Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. 12. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Fact check: 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe Biden's victory Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. So, where are the bellwether counties? Joe Biden (631) The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. 03:30. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Their concerns are real. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. 108,000 people. ET. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Bellwether 2016 The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. It almost became religious.". They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. How could 16 out of 17 bellwether counties predict a Trump win - Quora David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. In 2020, a single. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). 9. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election - NPR.org
Regeneron Vice President Salary, Michael Voss Obituary, Townhomes For Rent Montrose, Houston, Funeral Sermon Well Done, Articles OTHER